The Peso Just Matched Its Worst Day Ever, and BSP Cannot Fix It Alone
The peso closed at P61.75, tying its all-time low, as the NCR wage hike and Middle East oil volatility hit at the same time. GlobalSource Partners calls it a test of BSP’s credibility. Meanwhile, ERC wants to lower power reserve costs, and foreign capital keeps closing deals in PH consumer and infrastructure plays.
| Core Inflation (Jun) | Peso / USD | NCR Wage Hike | ERC Reserve Price Cap |
| 4.4%, 3-yr high | ₱61.75, record low | ₱60 effective Jul 25 | Proposed ₱9/kWh |
THE SNAPSHOT
The peso closed at P61.75 on Wednesday, matching its all-time low, as Middle East oil volatility and the NCR minimum wage hike hit the economy from two directions at once. GlobalSource Partners says this tests BSP’s credibility directly, since core inflation is already at a three-year high even before the P60 wage increase takes effect on July 25. Business groups are asking government for relief on power and logistics costs instead of a wage rollback, and ERC has floated a lower price cap for power reserves that could help. Even with the gloom, capital keeps moving. GSIS just raised its stake in Megawide, an Indian conglomerate is buying a Philippine personal care firm, and the PSE is rolling out a new trading engine built for a bigger, faster market.
SECTION 1 · Philippines
● Peso falls back to record low P61.75
WHAT HAPPENED
The peso closed at P61.75 to the dollar on Wednesday, matching the all-time low it first hit on May 18, as renewed US-Iran conflict pushed oil higher and revived inflation worries. BSP intervened by selling dollars in the onshore market, based on traders familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg.
UNCERTAIN
Traders differ on where the peso goes next, with estimates ranging from P61.60 to P61.90 depending on how the Middle East conflict develops.
WHY IT MATTERS
China Banking Corp. estimates every peso of depreciation adds about 0.03 percentage point to inflation through imported costs, so a weak peso keeps feeding the same price pressures businesses are already absorbing.
RISK
Import-reliant businesses face a weaker peso and volatile oil prices at the same time, with no clear signal on when either eases.
NEXT MOVE
If your costs are dollar-linked, revisit your hedging this week. BSP has room to defend the peso for now, but traders flagged that a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push it past current levels.
● Rising inflation and weak growth challenge BSP’s policy credibility
WHAT HAPPENED
GlobalSource Partners Principal Advisor Diwa C. Guinigundo said the Philippines faces two inflation shocks at once: the NCR minimum wage hike and renewed oil and peso pressure from the Middle East conflict. He estimates the wage adjustment alone could add about 0.4 percentage point to inflation directly, with more from second-round effects.
UNCERTAIN
Guinigundo did not give a specific revised inflation forecast, only that both shocks together could delay inflation’s return to target.
WHY IT MATTERS
Core inflation has accelerated for six straight months to 4.4% in June, its fastest pace in nearly three years, even before the wage hike fully lands. BSP Governor Remolona has said the increase was larger than expected.
RISK
If businesses and households start expecting permanently higher inflation, wage and price adjustments could reinforce each other into a longer cycle.
NEXT MOVE
Watch the Monetary Board’s Aug. 27 review for signals on rate policy. BSP has already hiked 50 basis points this year and is weighing whether the wage hike changes that path.
● Business groups urge government support to offset wage hike
WHAT HAPPENED
FINEX is asking the government to cut red tape, streamline permits, and lower input costs like electricity and logistics so firms can absorb the NCR wage hike without cutting hires. The Management Association of the Philippines said its members have no choice but to absorb the cost, calling it a hit to margins amid declining sales.
UNCERTAIN
None flagged. FINEX and MAP both spoke on record with specific asks and figures.
WHY IT MATTERS
The P60 first tranche takes effect July 25, with another P25 in January 2027. Labor lawyer Jose Sonny Matula noted that barangay micro business enterprises and small retail or service firms with up to 10 employees can apply for exemptions.
RISK
MSMEs and employment-intensive industries face margin pressure without matching relief on their own cost side.
OPPORTUNITY
Qualified small retail, service, and barangay micro enterprises can apply for a wage board exemption.
NEXT MOVE
If you run a BMBE or a retail or service business with 10 or fewer employees, check your eligibility for a wage board exemption before the July 25 deadline.
● ERC plans to cut price cap for power reserves
WHAT HAPPENED
The Energy Regulatory Commission is proposing to cut the price ceiling for power reserves traded in the spot market to P9 per kWh, down from the current P25 per kWh set in 2024. ERC Chairperson Francis Saturnino Juan said the move should push more generators into long-term supply contracts instead of relying on the reserve market.
UNCERTAIN
No timeline given for when the new cap takes effect, since it is still a draft resolution.
WHY IT MATTERS
Ancillary service charges rose 10.18% in the June supply period, and the grid operator has cited them as a driver of higher transmission rates. A lower reserve cap directly targets one part of what is pushing power costs up.
OPPORTUNITY
Lower reserve prices could ease one component of business electricity costs if the resolution is finalized.
NEXT MOVE
Energy-intensive businesses should track this draft resolution. If finalized, it is a concrete, near-term lever on power costs separate from broader grid supply issues.
SECTION 2 · Worth Knowing
● GSIS raises Megawide stake to 9.5%
WHAT HAPPENED
The Government Service Insurance System raised its stake in Megawide Construction Corp. to 9.5% after acquiring 111.94 million shares through block transactions, making it one of the company’s major local institutional investors. Megawide is targeting P1.2 billion in net income this year, supported by a 24% rise in first-quarter income.
UNCERTAIN
Megawide did not disclose the value of the transaction or who sold the shares.
WHY IT MATTERS
A state pension fund increasing exposure to a construction and infrastructure firm, in the same week inflation and peso headlines dominate, signals continued confidence in domestic infrastructure and housing pipelines like the government’s 4PH socialized housing program.
OPPORTUNITY
Validates continued institutional confidence in PH infrastructure and housing plays despite the weaker macro backdrop.
NEXT MOVE
Construction and infrastructure-adjacent businesses should watch Megawide’s execution on its 4PH housing pipeline as a read on how much of this government program actually reaches contractors.
● Indian FMCG giant Wipro buys S Brands consumer care in second Ph deal
WHAT HAPPENED
Wipro Consumer Care International signed a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of S Brands Consumer Care Inc., its second Philippine acquisition after buying Splash Corp. in 2019. The deal is expected to close in August, though Wipro declined to disclose the value.
UNCERTAIN
No acquisition value was disclosed, described only as “a good value” by Wipro’s East Asia president.
WHY IT MATTERS
Wipro called the Philippines the fourth-largest personal care market in Southeast Asia with a young, growing consumer base, and plans to use S Brands as a launchpad into Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and China. A repeat acquirer doubling down here is a specific vote of confidence in PH consumer demand.
OPPORTUNITY
Signals foreign strategic buyers still see the PH consumer market as a regional growth base, not just a standalone target.
NEXT MOVE
Founders in personal care, FMCG, or consumer brands should treat this as a signal that strategic acquirers are actively scouting the category. If you’re building a brand with regional potential, this is the kind of buyer profile to have on your radar.
● PSE upgrades trading system for November rollout
WHAT HAPPENED
The Philippine Stock Exchange will launch its new Nasdaq Eqlipse-based trading engine by November, after investing P241.03 million in the platform and P45.83 million in back-office systems. The new system can handle 5 million orders, 450,000 trades, and up to 15 million client trading accounts.
UNCERTAIN
No specifics on transition risk or downtime during the switch from the current system.
WHY IT MATTERS
The upgrade is built to support new instruments like derivatives and a standardized single lot size, positioning the PSE for expanded trading capacity and better market data products, both of which matter for investor participation and liquidity.
OPPORTUNITY
Better infrastructure could support new financial products and easier retail investor participation once live.
NEXT MOVE
If you’re building fintech or investment products tied to the PSE, start scoping compatibility with the new platform now. Derivatives and new data products are explicitly part of the roadmap.
SECTION 3 · THE OPPORTUNITY BEHIND THE NEWS
Capital is still picking winners while the macro story stays grim
GSIS raised its stake in Megawide to 9.5%, betting on the company’s construction and 4PH housing pipeline, the same week Wipro Consumer Care signed to acquire S Brands Consumer Care, calling the Philippines the fourth-largest personal care market in Southeast Asia with a young, growing consumer base. Both moves landed in a week dominated by a record-low peso and inflation warnings from BSP’s own advisors.
Both a state pension fund and a repeat foreign strategic acquirer are making specific, sector-level bets even as the macro headlines stay negative. Neither GSIS nor Wipro is betting on the Philippine economy broadly. They are betting on infrastructure and consumer demand specifically. Founders should take the same approach: broad macro pessimism does not mean every sector is closed to capital. If your business sits in a category a state fund or strategic acquirer would recognize as defensible, that story is worth telling investors directly, separate from the peso and inflation headlines.
SECTION 4 · FOUNDER’S LESSON
Ask for the exemption before you assume you don’t qualify
Buried in the wage hike coverage is a detail most founders will skip past: barangay micro business enterprises and small retail or service firms with up to 10 employees can apply for a wage board exemption. Labor lawyer Jose Sonny Matula called this a built-in safety valve, and it exists precisely for businesses in your position if you qualify.
The lesson is not about this specific exemption. It’s about the habit of assuming a new cost applies to you exactly as written, without checking whether the system already built in relief for your size or category. FINEX and MAP are both lobbying for broader government support, and that fight matters, but it will take months to resolve, if it resolves at all. The exemption process is available now. Founders who default to absorbing a cost without checking for an existing carve-out are leaving a real, immediate option on the table. Check the exemption first. Lobby for the bigger fix after.
SECTION 5 · ONE REAL SIGNAL
P61.75 is not just a currency number. It’s the cost of two shocks landing together
The peso closing at P61.75 on Wednesday matched its all-time low, first hit back in May. On its own, a currency touching a familiar floor might read as noise. What makes this instance different is timing. It landed in the same week GlobalSource Partners flagged that the Philippines is facing two inflation shocks simultaneously, the NCR wage hike and Middle East-driven oil volatility, and warned that together they could delay inflation’s return to target well past what BSP has already modeled.
China Banking Corp.’s chief economist estimates every peso of depreciation adds roughly 0.03 percentage point to inflation through imported costs. That sounds small until you stack it against core inflation already running at 4.4%, its fastest pace in nearly three years, before the wage hike’s first tranche even takes effect on July 25. BSP has intervened before and can likely defend the peso in the near term, but Governor Remolona has been explicit that the central bank does not defend a fixed level, only smooths inflationary swings. If oil prices spike further or the wage hike’s second-round effects turn out larger than expected, the P61.75 line will not be a floor. It will be a checkpoint on the way to a new one. Any business with dollar-linked costs, imported inputs, or peso-denominated debt should treat this week’s number as the baseline to plan around, not the worst case.
Summarized in our own words with links to every source. We don’t reproduce full articles or bypass paywalls. Interpretation is labeled as such and kept separate from reported fact.
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